India’s monsoon, which irrigates more than half of the country’s farmland and is critical for economic growth, is likely to be normal this year, according to private forecaster Skymet Weather Services Pvt.
This could mark a fourth straight year of normal monsoon, and is important because the June-September rainy season delivers as much as 90% of India’s annual rainfall and could determine yields of key crops such as wheat, rice and sugarcane.
India is already feeling the strain of higher food prices at a time when global food inflation is at a decade high. A normal monsoon would help to boost crop output in the country where about 60% of the population is dependent on agriculture. Deficient rains could lead to lower yields, potentially higher imports of commodities like edible oils, and rising food costs.
“This could be one of the normal monsoon years, making a robust start and finishing around the midway mark of the normal range,” Skymet said.
“After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically,” it said on its website Monday. In India, the La Nina weather pattern tends to be associated with harsher winters and above-normal rainfall.
The nation received 99% of the 50-year average rainfall of 880.6 millimeters in 2021, according to the India Meteorological Department, the official forecaster. A monsoon is considered normal when cumulative rains are between 96% and 104% of the long-term average. The IMD usually releases its forecast in April.